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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 11?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 11?

Volume:
$844,871

74° to 75°

 - Kalshi

74° to 75° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

74° to 75°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$95,623
N/A
N/A
$57,675
Settled
Yes
polymarket

74-75°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$35,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

82° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$257,443
N/A
N/A
$248,978
Settled
No
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119,874
N/A
N/A
$71,545
Settled
No
kalshi

73° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108,348
N/A
N/A
$68,934
Settled
No
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85,697
N/A
N/A
$68,758
Settled
No
kalshi

80° to 81°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80,143
N/A
N/A
$64,147
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

69°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the highest temperature expected in Los Angeles on July 11, 2026, as measured at Los Angeles International Airport. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for a high between 74–75°F stands at 66.5%, with a 76–77°F range at 20.0%. Resolution will be determined by Weather Underground historical data. Watch for the actual temperature reading on July 11, 2026, which will settle all outcome buckets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references July 10, 2026 with illogical resolution (all outcomes resolve Yes), while Polymarket correctly references July 11, 2026 with mutually exclusive temperature ranges. The date mismatch combined with Kalshi's logical contradiction makes these fundamentally incompatible markets measuring different events.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written because every temperature outcome resolves to Yes—this violates basic market logic. Polymarket is the only coherent market. Confirm the correct event date with Kalshi support and do not rely on Kalshi for settlement. Trade only on Polymarket unless Kalshi corrects its resolution rules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References July 10, 2026 (not July 11). All six temperature conditions (less than 74°, 74-75°, 76-77°, 78-79°, 80-81°, greater than 81°) resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible outcome is marked Yes. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily).
  • Polymarket: References July 11, 2026 with mutually exclusive temperature ranges: 69°F or below, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88°F or higher. Exactly one resolves Yes. Source: Weather Underground historical data for LAX (KLAX) station, whole-degree Fahrenheit precision.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, CA on July 10, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). Temperature ranges are divided into six bands: 73°F or below, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, and 82°F or above. Each temperature band corresponds to a distinct market outcome. The official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the definitive source for resolution, superseding other weather services. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data, as measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.

Frequently asked questions

The Los Angeles temperature market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on what the highest temperature will reach in Los Angeles on July 11. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants pricing the likelihood of different temperature ranges. Traders buy and sell shares based on their forecasts, and the collective odds reveal where the market expects conditions to land. Total volume across venues demonstrates active interest in this weather outcome, with $677,467 in recent 24-hour trading activity. By monitoring both platforms, you can see how distributed prediction markets converge on—or diverge from—a single weather event.

Prediction market prices often incorporate information faster than traditional weather models update. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric data and historical patterns, traders in this market synthesize forecasts, recent model runs, and real-time sentiment into live odds. Markets tend to be efficient at pricing consensus but can overweight recent news or underestimate tail risks. The odds here reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will occur, rather than a single institution's forecast. Comparing market prices to your own weather research or official National Weather Service guidance can reveal where traders may be overconfident or cautious on specific temperature bands.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as an unexpected marine layer, heat dome, or cold front—can rapidly reprrice this market. Updated National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus changes often trigger trader repositioning. Real-time atmospheric pressure, humidity, and wind data released by meteorological agencies may confirm or contradict current odds. Social media or news coverage highlighting extreme heat or unusual conditions can shift retail trader sentiment. Additionally, historical precedent for July 11 temperatures in Los Angeles and any unusual urban heat island effects reported by local media could influence how traders adjust their positions as the event date draws closer.