TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 4:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This spread betting focuses on the margin of victory in the Heerenveen versus Excelsior match. Outcomes depend on whether Heerenveen wins by a sufficient margin or if Excelsior secures a decisive victory.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Heerenveen or Excelsior wins the professional Eredivisie soccer game between the two teams, scheduled for October 16, 2026. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty shootout goals excluded. Each market specifies a minimum winning margin (e.g., Heerenveen wins by more than 1.5 goals, Excelsior wins by more than 2.5 goals, etc.). If the winning team meets or exceeds the specified margin, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract balanced betting, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a more accurate assessment of probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s common to see discrepancies between this market and sportsbook odds, as the “wisdom of the crowd” on Kalshi may weigh factors differently than professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Heerenveen vs Excelsior match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves based on supply and demand; if more people believe the spread will be a certain way, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and evolving price that reflects the collective intelligence of the market.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Heerenveen vs Excelsior match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported result of the match. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual spread. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals could move this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could influence trader sentiment and shift the price. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or key player availability would also likely cause movement. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news or analysis, could impact the market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions about the Heerenveen vs Excelsior match.