TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 9:44 PM EST
Polymarket
This group covers markets related to the NBA game between the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic on October 16th. Markets include predicting the winner, which team scores first, and whether the total score will be odd or even. All markets specify handling for postponements and cancellations.
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 16 at 7:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 16 at 7:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. The implied probabilities in this market may differ from those offered by sportsbooks due to varying information sources and participant motivations. It’s valuable to compare both to inform your own assessment.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Predict for the Heat-Magic game market can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, which can influence trading behavior. Furthermore, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform may differ, impacting price discovery. The specific market design and fee structures on Polymarket versus Predict can also contribute to price discrepancies. These factors combined create a dynamic environment where prices reflect the unique characteristics of each platform’s trading activity.