TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Heart of Midlothian and St. Mirren in the Scottish Premiership. The result is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Participants can bet on either team winning or the match ending in a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Heart of Midlothian vs St. Mirren professional Scottish Premiership soccer match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome for either team occurs if that specific team wins the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If the match ends in a tie after the same regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and stoppage minutes, with no consideration given to extended play or penalty decisions.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin. This market, being driven by individual traders, tends to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd more directly. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market can quickly adjust based on new information and changing sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the current probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by the collective actions of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Scottish Premiership match will be used to determine the winning contract. Resolution will be based on official sources that report the final score, and any adjustments made by the league governing body. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or shifts in player form could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, any public statements from key players or managers could sway opinion. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact on the outcome is crucial for informed trading in this market.