This event group covers the NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks scheduled for March 4, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline outcomes, point spreads, over/under totals (full game and first half), and individual player prop bets across points, rebounds, and assists.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use identical resolution logic: official NBA box score, overtime inclusion, postponement handling (remain open), cancellation handling (50-50), and player inactivity rules (No). No threshold, timing, or source divergences detected.
Primary resolution logic:
Official NBA box score as published on NBA.com
Core resolution logic:
Moneyline markets (full game and first half) resolve based on which team is ahead at the relevant time (final score for full game, halftime score for first half)
Spread markets resolve based on margin of victory; Hawks -1.5 resolves Hawks if they win by 2+ points, otherwise Bucks; Bucks -0.5 (1H) resolves Bucks if ahead by 1+ at halftime, otherwise Hawks
Over/Under markets resolve based on combined team points: threshold is the stated line plus 1 (e.g., O/U 231.5 resolves Over at 232+)
Player prop markets (points, rebounds, assists) resolve Yes if player exceeds the stated threshold, No if at or below threshold
All calculations include overtime periods
If game is postponed, markets remain open until game completion
If game is canceled with no make-up, all markets resolve 50-50
If player is inactive or does not take the court, player prop markets resolve No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Tied halftime score (first half moneyline): Market resolves 50-50 if Hawks and Bucks are tied at halftime
Game postponement: All markets remain open and unresolved until the game is completed on a future date
Complete game cancellation: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, all markets resolve 50-50
Player inactivity: If a player is listed as inactive or does not take the court at any point, all their associated prop markets resolve No
Overtime inclusion: All markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props) include overtime periods in their final resolution
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the final official NBA box score is published on NBA.com following game completion (including any overtime). First-half markets resolve at halftime based on the official halftime score.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.