TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:43 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game, including any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered successful.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the designated college football game. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team's victory margin in that half exceeds the stated point threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game commencement timing.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to trade based on their own insights, leading to odds that can diverge from those offered by sportsbooks as new information emerges. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls, as traders have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to make informed predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Hawai'i vs Arizona State game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The winning contracts will correspond to the side of the spread that correctly predicts the actual result. Resolution will be based on official game statistics and data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Hawai'i or Arizona State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to fluctuations in the market price. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also play a role, though the market ultimately reflects the collective judgment of traders.