TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in Germany's third-tier league. Bettors can speculate on whether one team will win or if the game will end in a draw, based on the full regulation time of the match.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Havelse vs Wurzburg professional German 3. Liga soccer match originally scheduled for October 13, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the Havelse market occurs if Havelse wins in regulation time, while a 'Yes' for the Wurzburg market requires a Wurzburg victory in the same timeframe. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the game concludes in a draw after regulation. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets exclusively consider regulation time results, with no account for extended play or penalty shootouts.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own beliefs, which can lead to odds that diverge from sportsbook offerings, especially as new information emerges. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, particularly regarding factors not easily quantifiable, like team morale or potential injuries.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect a collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time forecast of the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Havelse vs Wurzburg match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. The platform will then determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle. The outcome will be determined by the final score of the match.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Havelse or Wurzburg would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, unexpected tactical decisions announced by the coaches, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trader sentiment. Major upsets in other related matches, or even public statements from influential figures, could also contribute to shifts in the market. Monitoring sports news and team updates is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.