TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team will win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Harvard vs Cornell college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. If Harvard wins by exceeding the specified point margin defined in each market, that market resolves to Yes; if Cornell wins by exceeding its defined margin, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and attempt to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregate beliefs of informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from the price action here, it might indicate a perceived edge or disagreement about the likely outcome of the game. Keep in mind, however, that these are distinct markets with different participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Harvard-Cornell football game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. The top market currently on Kalshi is for Harvard winning by over 7.5 points, though the chance percentage is not currently available.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Harvard-Cornell football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual point difference between the two teams falls within the range specified by each contract. All trading will cease once the event concludes and the result is officially available.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Harvard or Cornell would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also affect trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team morale or coaching decisions could introduce volatility into this market.