TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This spread event assesses whether Hartford Athletic achieves a decisive victory over Louisville City, with specific margins required for different outcomes during regulation time alone.
All markets resolve based on the margin of victory in the Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City USL Cup soccer game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, considering only regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) and excluding extra time or penalties. Two markets favor Hartford Athletic: one requiring a win by more than 2.5 goals and another by more than 1.5 goals. Two markets favor Louisville City: one requiring a win by more than 1.5 goals and another by more than 2.5 goals. If the actual goal difference meets or exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their individual beliefs. As more information becomes available and opinions converge, the prices in this market can become more accurate than traditional odds, especially closer to the event. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly early on, as the market digests news and analyses related to the teams involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective intelligence of those trading. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different results in the Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City match.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final regulation time spread of the Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the league or governing body, ensuring an objective determination of the winning spread. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will forfeit their stake. The final result will be clearly displayed on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on game day could also play a role, potentially impacting the style of play and the final spread. Furthermore, major news events affecting team morale or public perception could influence trading activity. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.