TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a league game. Bettors can predict whether one team will win or if the match will end in a draw within the standard playing time. The resolution depends solely on the result after the allocated 90 minutes and any added stoppage time, excluding any extended periods or penalty shootouts.
The event determines the winner of a professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for October 14, 2026, between Hartford Athletic and Charleston, based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Hartford Athletic, a win for Charleston, or a tie. If either team secures a victory within the standard match duration, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will be resolved at a fair price as per the defined procedures. The resolution explicitly excludes extra time and penalty kicks, focusing only on the regular time result.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the odds can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but it’s important to remember they represent different methodologies and sources of information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders on the Kalshi exchange.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hartford Athletic vs Charleston match, as determined by the league's official standings. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions impacting the match schedule or playing conditions are also potential catalysts. Additionally, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could create momentum and move the market. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also play a role, influencing trader behavior and ultimately affecting the price of contracts.