TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 4:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams in a league game scheduled for a specific date. The market focuses on determining the winner after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. It also accounts for potential tie outcomes and procedural handling if the match is significantly altered or canceled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Hapoel Kfar Shelem vs Ra`anana professional Liga Leumit soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Hapoel Kfar Shelem, a win for Ra`anana, or a tie. If either team secures a victory within the regulation time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie, the Tie market will resolve to Yes. In the event the game is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The resolution explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can take positions that drive the prediction market price in a different direction. This dynamic can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate, or simply representing a different perspective on the likelihood of various results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This means the price isn’t determined by a single entity, but rather by the collective actions of all participants trading in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Israeli soccer match between Hapoel Kfar Shelem and Ra`anana, as reported by a trusted sports news source. The platform will verify the final score and determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result, finalizing the settlement of all contracts associated with this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or tactical changes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, public perception, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also impact trading activity and influence the odds associated with the Israeli soccer match.