TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.3b
24H VOL:
$358,270,487
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,041,693,191
423,163
Markets across
39,982
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,387
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:26 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Hamburg will win its professional Bundesliga soccer game against Stuttgart. Currently, Kalshi gives Hamburg a 99.0% probability of winning, while Stuttgart is at 1.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the Hamburg vs Stuttgart game, according to Kalshi. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market resolves to Yes if Stuttgart wins the game originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Hamburg vs Stuttgart Bundesliga match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome applies to the respective market if Hamburg wins (Hamburg market), Stuttgart wins (Stuttgart market), or the match ends in a tie (Tie market). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Bundesliga or governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the prediction market may adjust more quickly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant event. Comparing these odds can provide a more nuanced view of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the result. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge on the true probability of each outcome as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Hamburg vs Stuttgart match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual result. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final score to understand when and how this market will be settled. The platform will clearly indicate when the resolution process is complete.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Hamburg or Stuttgart would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style. Furthermore, any significant tactical changes announced by the managers could influence how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes.