TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of goals scored in an upcoming soccer match between Hamburg and Frankfurt. Bettors can speculate on whether the combined goals from both teams will exceed various thresholds. The outcome depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event determines whether the total goals scored by both Hamburg and Frankfurt in their DFB Pokal match scheduled for October 27, 2026, exceed specified thresholds. All markets resolve based on goals scored within the 90 minutes of regulation time plus any stoppage time added by the referee, with explicit exclusion of goals from extra time or penalty shootouts. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals), where exceeding that threshold results in a 'Yes' resolution. The markets operate independently, allowing participants to assess varying levels of scoring probability. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a relatively small number of experts, whereas this market aggregates insights from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can arise from varying levels of information access, differing analytical approaches, or simply the influence of public sentiment within this market. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Hamburg vs Frankfurt match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trading requires correctly anticipating the market's overall prediction. The current market depth shows the available contracts at various price points.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final goal tally of the Hamburg vs Frankfurt match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of goals scored in the match, as officially recorded by the governing football league, will determine the winning contract. Any extra time or penalty shootouts will not be considered; only goals scored during regular play count towards the resolution of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Hamburg or Frankfurt would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for high-scoring games, could also shift expectations. Unexpected lineup announcements or tactical changes revealed by either team's manager could also introduce new information and affect the perceived probabilities. Even public sentiment, reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.