TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Hamburg and Frankfurt, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential thresholds for the Hamburg vs Frankfurt professional DFB Pokal soccer match scheduled for October 27, 2026. Resolution is based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are disregarded. Four distinct outcome scenarios are considered: Hamburg winning by more than 2.5 goals, Hamburg winning by more than 1.5 goals, Frankfurt winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Frankfurt winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these specified conditions are met for the respective team, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If sportsbook odds significantly differ from the price on Kalshi, it could indicate disagreement about the true probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and discrepancies can arise due to differing information or analytical approaches. It's always wise to compare both before making a decision.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Hamburg vs Frankfurt match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient assessment of the event's outcome based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Hamburg vs Frankfurt match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the governing sports authority. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. It's important to monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Hamburg or Frankfurt would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or significant shifts in public perception of each team's chances will also be reflected in the market price. Monitoring sports news and analysis related to both teams is crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift this market.