TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:11 AM EST
Kalshi
This event group concerns a Japan B League basketball game between the Gunma Crane Thunders and the Osaka Evessa. The markets resolve to either Gunma Crane Thunders winning or Osaka Evessa winning, with provisions for postponed or canceled games.
In the upcoming Japan B League game, scheduled for October 31 at 2:05AM ET: If the Gunma Crane Thunders win, the market will resolve to "Gunma Crane Thunders". If the Osaka Evessa win, the market will resolve to "Osaka Evessa". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The market resolves based on the winner of the men's professional Japan B League basketball game between Osaka Evessa and Gunma Crane Thunders originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 2:05 AM EDT. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, the market stays open and resolves using the official final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while sportsbook odds are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. This can lead to differences, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. Sportsbooks also factor in a profit margin, which isn't necessarily present in prediction markets. However, both aim to accurately predict the probability of an event occurring, and often converge as the event approaches, especially with significant volume.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance, influencing their trading decisions. Additionally, differing liquidity levels and trading fees between Polymarket and Kalshi can create price discrepancies. Market sentiment and information flow may also vary, leading to distinct probability assessments. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing observed across platforms, even for the same underlying event.