TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 3:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 2 soccer match between Guingamp and Pau. The result is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will resolve based on whether Guingamp, Pau, or neither team (a tie) wins the match as scheduled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Guingamp vs Pau professional Ligue 2 soccer match originally scheduled for October 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Guingamp wins, the 'Guingamp' market resolves to Yes; if Pau wins, the 'Pau' market resolves to Yes; and if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply how each venue processes data. If you find a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it might signal an opportunity for informed trading, or suggest that the market is incorporating information that sportsbooks haven't yet fully accounted for.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Guingamp vs Pau match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices adjust dynamically. Essentially, the market price is determined by the forces of supply and demand, with traders acting as both market makers and informed speculators. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each possible result.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Guingamp vs Pau match, as determined by the governing sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 16, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, major upsets in other relevant matches or broader trends in team performance could shift market sentiment. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.