TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Guemes and Colegiales in Argentina's Nacional B league. Bettors can speculate on which team will win the match after the full 90 minutes plus any stoppage time. If the game ends in a tie, a separate market will resolve positively.
The event covers three possible outcomes of the Guemes vs Colegiales professional Argentine Nacional B soccer match scheduled for October 4, 2026: a win for Guemes, a win for Colegiales, or a tie—all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its corresponding outcome occurs. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes,' while the team-specific markets resolve to 'No.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The event explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootouts in determining outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the varying motivations of participants. If you find a significant difference between the odds here and those offered by sportsbooks, it might indicate an opportunity for value betting, depending on your own assessment of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s current expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of probabilities. The market depth and trading activity influence how quickly and significantly the prices change, offering insights into the level of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Guemes vs Colegiales match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the final score and declare the winning outcome based on this official data. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout based on the final market prices at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift expectations. Major upsets in related matches or shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements, especially if they signal informed opinions about the likely outcome of the Guemes vs Colegiales match.