TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 4:40 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Joaquin Aguilar in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Joaquin Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Tomas Barrios. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Joaquin Aguilar in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Joaquin Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Tomas Barrios. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market relies on the opinions of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information and potentially offer more accurate probabilities than initial sportsbook lines.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the Barrios vs Aguilar match.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Guayaquil tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Joaquin Aguilar. The platform will verify the winner against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute funds to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor reputable sports news outlets for the official result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 5, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected performance in prior matches could shift trader sentiment. Significant media coverage or expert analysis favoring one player over the other could also cause price movements. Unexpected weather conditions in Guayaquil, if relevant to the match, might also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning will likely impact the market.