TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 4:40 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Miguel Tobon in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Miguel Tobon. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Miguel Tobon in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Miguel Tobon. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on traders directly expressing their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that prediction market participants possess information not yet fully priced into traditional betting lines. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Aguilar vs Tobon match as declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute funds accordingly to those who accurately predicted the result. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available, verifiable information.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market. Any news regarding the condition of either fighter, Joaquin Aguilar or Miguel Tobon, such as injuries or changes in training regimens, would likely have a significant impact. Public announcements about fight strategy or perceived advantages could also move the market. Furthermore, shifts in overall public sentiment, reflected in social media or boxing news outlets, could drive trading volume and alter the perceived likelihood of each outcome. Unexpected developments leading up to Nov 4, 2026 could all contribute to price fluctuations.