TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 8:22 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Lautaro Midon in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Lautaro Midon. This market will resolve to 'Lautaro Midon' if Lautaro Midon advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Lautaro Midon in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Lautaro Midon. This market will resolve to 'Lautaro Midon' if Lautaro Midon advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion strongly favors one outcome. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be mispricing the probability of a particular result.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market's accuracy, while significant price swings can signal new information or changing sentiment regarding the Aguilar vs Midon match.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match between Joaquin Aguilar and Lautaro Midon, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Nov 6, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players might also impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price fluctuations, reflecting a change in conviction about the likely winner of the Aguilar vs Midon match.