TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:41 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Alex Hernandez in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Alex Hernandez. This market will resolve to 'Alex Hernandez' if Alex Hernandez advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Alex Hernandez in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Alex Hernandez. This market will resolve to 'Alex Hernandez' if Alex Hernandez advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the wisdom of the crowd on Polymarket, tends to be more efficient and reflects the collective belief of informed traders. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market continuously adjusts as new information and opinions emerge, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It's a valuable comparison point for anyone analyzing the potential outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price fluctuates, creating a dynamic and responsive market. This differs from fixed-odds betting, as the odds aren't set by a bookmaker but rather emerge from the collective actions of all participants on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Carabelli vs Hernandez match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the event nears its conclusion, as this will determine the final settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even updated rankings could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player form could also trigger significant price adjustments. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though this market is primarily driven by informed trading on Polymarket. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds before Nov 5, 2026.