TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Guatemala vs. Suriname
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Guatemala vs. Suriname?

Volume:
$3,804,190

Guatemala

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Guatemala

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,857,804
N/A
N/A
$738,364
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Guatemala

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$150,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Suriname

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$931,709
N/A
N/A
$517,176
Settled
No
polymarket

Suriname

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$803,440
N/A
N/A
$403,865
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname)

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,960
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Guatemala will win its soccer match against Suriname on October 5, 2026. Currently, the aggregated probability of Guatemala winning is 100.0%, with Suriname winning at 0.1%. These probabilities are sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket, and the match outcome will be resolved based on information from https://www.concacaf.com/. Keep an eye on the official Concacaf schedule leading up to October 5, 2026, to confirm the match remains on its planned date and time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Polymarket explicitly resolves canceled games to 'No', while Kalshi does not address this scenario.Hero tip: Consider the likelihood of the game being canceled when trading. Polymarket offers a defined outcome for cancellation, while Kalshi's resolution is uncertain in that event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on win/loss/draw within 90 minutes + stoppage time. If canceled, resolves to 'No'. Uses official stats, then Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus if official data is unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on win/loss/draw within 90 minutes + stoppage time. No explicit handling of cancellations is stated. Resolution relies on the game being completed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Monday, October 5, 2026 between Guatemala and Suriname.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Guatemala vs Suriname professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Guatemala wins the match within this timeframe, the 'Guatemala' market resolves to Yes. If Suriname achieves the victory under the same conditions, the 'Suriname' market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The event exclusively considers the result after normal time and does not account for outcomes determined during extra time, penalty shootouts, or other post-regulation proceedings.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those seen on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many independent traders. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially when there’s disagreement or new information emerges. For this market, the implied probabilities from prediction markets may diverge from sportsbook odds based on factors like public sentiment, expert analysis, and the volume of trading activity. The current volume for this market is $3,804,190.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, influencing how prices are formed. Additionally, the liquidity – or volume – on each platform can vary significantly; currently, Polymarket has a volume of $3,804,190, while Kalshi shows $2,798,838 in 24-hour volume. This difference in participation can lead to price discrepancies, even when both markets address the same question about the Guatemala vs. Suriname match. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information can also contribute to these variations.