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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:42 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Maria Timofeeva will advance against Xinran Sun in their Guangzhou Open tennis match, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Guangzhou Open: Completed Match: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun.” Resolution will be determined by the official scores reported at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the outcome will be known following the completion of the match on November 5, 2026, the estimated resolution date for this market.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Timofeeva and Xinran Sun in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Timofeeva' if Maria Timofeeva advances against Xinran Sun. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Maria Timofeeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant difference emerges between the two, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the betting cycle, as information becomes available and opinions converge.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of a particular player winning the Guangzhou Open match.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Guangzhou Open match between Maria Timofeeva and Xinran Sun, as declared by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine which player emerged victorious and settle the market accordingly. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even updated analysis from tennis experts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in earlier rounds of the tournament for either player could also impact the odds. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by informed traders could create significant price movements, reflecting new information or a change in overall market perception of the players' chances of winning the Guangzhou Open match.