TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:37 AM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional basketball game between two teams competing in China's top-tier league. The resolution depends solely on which team secures a victory in the match. Any changes to the game's schedule or cancellation will follow specific guidelines to determine how the market ultimately settles.
The event resolves based on the winner of the designated basketball game between Guangzhou Loong Lions and Nanjing Monkey Kings. If either team wins the match as scheduled, the corresponding market will resolve accordingly. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, the market remains active and resolves based on the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting neither a definitive win nor loss for either participant.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin, and may be influenced by public betting patterns. This market, however, is driven by informed traders expressing their genuine beliefs about the outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings and statistics, prediction markets can quickly adjust to new information and potentially offer more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access and analytical approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the most up-to-date assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe the Guangzhou Loong Lions will win, they will buy contracts predicting that outcome, driving up its price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official outcome of the Guangzhou Loong Lions versus Nanjing Monkey Kings game. The platform will utilize publicly available sources to determine the winner and settle the market accordingly. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payouts once the resolution process is complete. It's important to monitor news sources for updates as the game progresses, as these can influence trading activity.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either the Guangzhou Loong Lions or the Nanjing Monkey Kings would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team performance, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions (if the game is outdoors) could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity from large traders or institutions could create short-term price movements, reflecting their informed opinions on the game’s likely outcome.