TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This group forecasts the winner of a China CBA basketball game between the Guangzhou Loong Lions and the Beijing Ducks, scheduled for October 25, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if either team wins, with specific resolution details varying slightly between platforms.
The event resolves based on the result of the men's professional China CBA basketball game between Guangzhou Loong Lions and Beijing Ducks, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026, at 7:35 AM EDT. If either team wins the game as officially recorded, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:35AM ET: If the Beijing Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Ducks". If the Guangzhou Loong Lions win, the market will resolve to "Guangzhou Loong Lions". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prices on Kalshi and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, all of which can influence price discovery. Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, differing levels of liquidity can create temporary price discrepancies; if one platform has significantly more volume, its prices may be more stable and representative of overall market sentiment. The algorithms used for price display and order matching may also contribute to these differences, resulting in varying probabilities for the same outcome in this market. These variations present opportunities for arbitrage traders.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either the Guangzhou Loong Lions or Beijing Ducks would likely cause price movement. Major coaching changes, shifts in team performance, or even significant media coverage could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about game location or scheduling changes could also play a role. Furthermore, broader trends within the Chinese Basketball Association, such as a team's recent winning or losing streak, could affect the probabilities offered on Kalshi and Predict for this market.