TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:32 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Weber and Dominik Palan in the Guangzhou, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Weber' if Arthur Weber advances against Dominik Palan. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Palan' if Dominik Palan advances against Arthur Weber. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Weber and Dominik Palan in the Guangzhou, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Weber' if Arthur Weber advances against Dominik Palan. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Palan' if Dominik Palan advances against Arthur Weber. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. Early in the market's lifecycle, you might see discrepancies as prediction markets aggregate information and react to news or analysis. Over time, these odds tend to converge as more information becomes available and the market matures, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional sources.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The higher the price of a share, the greater the perceived chance of that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of the event's potential results based on trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Guangzhou tennis match between Arthur Weber and Dominik Palan, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against established sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the finalized outcome of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in preceding matches, analysis from tennis experts, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule could all contribute to price movements. Major upsets in other related tournaments or shifts in public perception of the players' chances could also play a role in how this market evolves leading up to Oct 25, 2026.