TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in the same soccer match, evaluating whether either team will win by a specified goal differential. The result hinges on the difference in scores between Guadeloupe and Saint Lucia after the full regulation time.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential in the Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the Guadeloupe markets occurs if Guadeloupe wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. Conversely, a 'Yes' outcome for the Saint Lucia markets occurs if Saint Lucia wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where the market believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating certain probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia match as reported by official sources. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances after the resolution process is complete. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted data to ensure accuracy.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 6, 2026. News regarding player injuries or changes in team lineups for either Guadeloupe or Saint Lucia would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or prominent sports commentators, could lead to increased trading activity and price fluctuations. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread could move the market.