TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:05 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets determine outcomes based on the winning margin for Guadalajara or Atlante, with conditions set for victories exceeding certain goal differences. The thresholds for each team range from more than one and a half to more than two and a half goals, calculated after regular time only.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential if Guadalajara or Atlante wins the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. For Guadalajara, 'Yes' occurs if they win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. For Atlante, 'Yes' occurs if they win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their analysis, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. It's common to see prediction markets converge towards the 'true' probability as the event approaches, though they can sometimes diverge based on unique information or perspectives held by market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Guadalajara vs Atlante match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders' individual predictions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that accurately forecasts the outcome of the event, based on the aggregated insights of all participants.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Guadalajara vs Atlante match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the sporting authority governing the match. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the Nov 1, 2026 resolution date. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Guadalajara or Atlante teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even public statements from team personnel could all contribute to shifts in the market price. Major upsets in other related matches might also indirectly influence how traders assess the probabilities in this market.