TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Guadalajara will win its Liga MX soccer match against Atlante. Currently, Kalshi gives Guadalajara a 99.0% probability of winning, while Atlante is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official Liga MX results; extra time and penalty kicks will not be considered. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the resolution will be determined by the final score at the end of regulation and stoppage time on November 1, 2026, which represents the end of the betting period for this market.
The event covers a professional Liga MX soccer match between Guadalajara and Atlante scheduled for October 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Guadalajara, a win for Atlante, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform's rules. The platform, Kalshi, clarifies that it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand among traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that outcome will rise in this market. Conversely, if traders disagree with sportsbook assessments, the price will move in the opposite direction. It’s a dynamic comparison, with each reflecting different types of information and incentives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Guadalajara vs Atlante match. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of collective belief. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at various price points, indicating the strength of conviction behind each potential result.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Guadalajara vs Atlante match, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning contract. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The precise timing of resolution may vary slightly depending on the availability of official results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or strategic changes could also lead to price adjustments. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could create momentum and influence the market. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is crucial for informed trading decisions.