TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 12:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Groningen and Sparta, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event evaluates multiple possible outcomes of the Groningen versus Sparta Eredivisie soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026, based on the goal differential between the two teams after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct primary rules define different winning margins: Groningen must win by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, while Sparta must win by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals for the respective markets to resolve positively. Each rule specifies a unique threshold for victory, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance by either team. All markets are independent, and resolution depends solely on the final score within regular time. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the league or teams involved, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments of the game’s outcome. These differences can arise from varying information sources, analytical approaches, or simply differing opinions about the relative strengths of the teams. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than traditional bookmakers, especially as new data emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants trading in this market, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast for the Groningen vs Sparta match.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final point spread of the Groningen vs Sparta match, as determined by official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract’s prediction, and proportionally less if the actual spread differs. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Groningen or Sparta could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team dynamics could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the game’s outcome is key to informed trading in this market.