TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Großaspach and Augsburg, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differences to determine the result. The event is tied to a specific professional game in the DFB Pokal tournament.
The event evaluates various goal-difference thresholds to determine resolution across four distinct markets. Each market specifies a different margin of victory required for either Großaspach or Augsburg to win. All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The outcome depends on whether the winning team exceeds the stated goal-difference threshold—2.5 or 1.5 goals—for their respective victory. The event emphasizes that Kalshi, the platform hosting these markets, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. Examining these differences can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy and offer to sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that will pay out if their predicted outcome comes to pass.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Großaspach vs Augsburg match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The specific details regarding the final score and any relevant match statistics will be used to determine which outcome, if any, satisfies the conditions for payout. Traders will then receive their payouts based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly shift expectations. The release of updated team lineups closer to the match, or even weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants, or even shifts in broader public sentiment, can all contribute to price fluctuations in this market before Oct 27, 2026.