TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Gremio and Cruzeiro, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in a Gremio versus Cruzeiro Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the size of the winning margin after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Gremio wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Gremio wins by more than 1.5 goals, its corresponding market resolves positively. For Cruzeiro, winning by more than 1.5 goals triggers a Yes outcome in its related market, as does a victory margin exceeding 2.5 goals. All markets share the same underlying match and timing conditions, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights different from those priced into traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance betting action, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that prediction market traders have access to, or place greater weight on, information not fully incorporated by sportsbooks. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and differences can arise due to varying analytical approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Gremio vs Cruzeiro match, as determined by official match results. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Gremio or Cruzeiro could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of buy or sell orders – could cause noticeable price movements. Finally, any pre-match analysis or expert opinions that gain traction could also impact how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes.