TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 7:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Gremio Novorizontino will win their professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer game against Ponte Preta. Currently, Kalshi gives a 95.0% probability to Gremio Novorizontino winning, with a 4.0% probability assigned to a tie. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game as reported by official sources, specifically if Gremio Novorizontino wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Keep a close eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve following the conclusion of the game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026, with final resolution expected by the estimated date of 2026-10-13.
This event resolves based on the outcome of the Gremio Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta Brazilian Serie B soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match concludes in a tie, a separate 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. In cases where the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours later, markets will resolve to a fair price. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent the true probability of an event occurring. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as more people trade, potentially revealing information not fully captured by traditional oddsmakers. It's common to see differences emerge, especially as the event approaches and more information surfaces.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Brazilian Serie B match. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at various price points, also provides insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gremio Novorizontino versus Ponte Preta match in the Brazilian Serie B. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff would likely have an impact. Significant shifts in team form, based on recent match results, could also alter perceptions. Unexpected weather conditions at the match venue, or even pre-match analysis from respected football commentators, could sway traders' opinions. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could trigger price movements, as others react to their actions. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential market shifts.