TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a league game. The result depends solely on the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. The possible outcomes include one of the teams winning or the match ending in a draw.
The event covers three possible market resolutions based on the result of the Gremio Novorizontino vs Ferroviario professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026. If Gremio Novorizontino wins the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, its corresponding market resolves to Yes. If Ferroviario achieves the victory under the same conditions, its market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude with an equal scoreline after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. All markets are defined strictly by the result after normal playing time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty outcomes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and attempt to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a large number of people believe one team is more likely to win than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move in that direction. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous, order-book style exchange. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on the volume of buy and sell orders, meaning that even small amounts of trading activity can cause the odds to shift. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gremio Novorizontino versus Ferroviario match in the Brazilian Serie C. The platform will verify the final score against trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result of the game. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, reflected in betting patterns or expert analysis, will be incorporated into the price. Even late-breaking news about player form or tactical adjustments could cause the market to move as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.