TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks individual player performance in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players reach particular rushing yard thresholds. Each market evaluates a different player's ability to achieve a set number of rushing yards during the match.
All markets in this event are resolved based on the rushing yards accumulated by specified players in the Green Bay vs Tampa Bay professional football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For each market, if the named player records the specified number of rushing yards or more during the game, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if the player is active for the game but does not take a single snap—meaning they are on the roster but do not participate in any offensive, defensive, or special teams plays—the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once the player takes at least one snap, even if that snap is nullified by a penalty, the market outcome is determined solely by whether the player met or exceeded the rushing yard threshold during the game. These rules ensure that markets are resolved fairly, accounting for both player participation and actual in-game performance.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as an event approaches. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, but this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is incorrect, they can take the opposite position, driving the price on Kalshi towards what they believe is the true probability. This dynamic can lead to differences, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced as a continuous probability distribution, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts for various rushing yard totals. The price of each contract represents the probability of the total rushing yards falling at or below that specific value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting these prices based on their expectations, news, and analysis. The market aggregates this collective intelligence to provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. Higher volume at a particular yardage suggests stronger conviction among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total rushing yards achieved by both the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be used to determine which contracts payout. The market will settle to the actual total rushing yards, as reported by the official league statistics. Traders holding contracts corresponding to outcomes at or below the actual total will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would any changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could affect the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or coaching strategies could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about the health of quarterbacks could also indirectly impact rushing yard expectations, as teams may adjust their play-calling accordingly. Any late-breaking news related to player availability or game plans could cause volatility.