TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific quarterbacks in a football game, focusing on their ability to throw touchdowns. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach certain thresholds of scoring passes during the match. The outcome depends purely on the players' in-game statistics.
All markets in this event evaluate whether designated Green Bay quarterbacks—Jalon Daniels or Jordan Love—achieve specified minimums of passing touchdowns in the game against Tampa Bay on October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold: 1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+ touchdowns for each quarterback. If a named quarterback is active for the team but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. However, once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether plays are nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the total passing touchdowns they record during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation criteria for each quarterback and threshold specified.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing touchdowns. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the most up-to-date information and expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by both the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could also shift expectations. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations as the game approaches.