TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on performance thresholds. Participants can bet on whether each player will meet or exceed certain reception milestones, with returns increasing as the milestones are surpassed.
Each market resolves based on the official number of receptions recorded by the specified player in the Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Yes contracts pay according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, calculated using the formula Payout Formula = floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. The maximum Yes payout is $1.00, and No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. All markets are scalar, meaning payouts are determined solely by the exact reception count, with identical calculation methods and disclaimers across each player-specific market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines, which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or focus on public perception, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market tends to adjust rapidly, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of probabilities than traditional betting venues. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market’s lifecycle, as traders incorporate their own analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts at prices they deem fair. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective prediction of the probability of a specific outcome occurring – in this case, a player exceeding a certain number of receptions. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved in the Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions game will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for verification. The market will then settle, and winning contracts will pay out based on their contract value at resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Packers or the Lions would likely cause substantial shifts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact passing game strategies and, consequently, reception totals. Unexpected changes in coaching strategies or player usage patterns could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player availability or team dynamics could lead to volatility in this market.