TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for quarterbacks in an upcoming football game, resolving based on whether specified players achieve certain yardage thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on whether Jared Goff or Jordan Love achieve specified passing yard thresholds (ranging from 200+ to 400+) in the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as protected: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not afterward, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract always settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by experts. Sportsbooks may initially emphasize factors like team reputation or pre-season predictions, while this market incorporates a broader range of information as traders buy and sell contracts. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be more accurate forecasts of the actual outcome than traditional odds, as they continuously adjust based on new information and collective insight. However, sportsbook odds can still offer valuable context when evaluating this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, specific passing yard ranges for the game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all traders involved, providing a real-time assessment of the likely passing yard total.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard statistics for the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yard total, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. The market will settle based on the official game data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final statistics to understand the market's outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health – for either Jared Goff or the Packers’ starter – would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift expectations for passing yard totals. Unexpected announcements about key offensive players being injured or limited in their playing time would also likely move the market. Finally, any late-breaking information about coaching strategies or defensive matchups could impact traders’ predictions and cause price fluctuations.