TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks Jared Goff and Jordan Love in a specific football game, focusing on their ability to avoid turnovers through passing interceptions. The outcome depends on how many interceptions each player throws during the match, with different thresholds defining various market resolutions.
The event evaluates passing interceptions thrown by quarterbacks Jared Goff and Jordan Love in the Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market resolves based on whether a quarterback records a specified number of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+). If either quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria tied to the specific interception threshold for each quarterback.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If a significant difference exists, it could indicate that prediction market participants believe the sportsbook odds are mispriced, or that they have access to information not yet fully reflected in the sportsbook lines. It's a fascinating comparison to consider when evaluating potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a specific outcome occurring – in this case, the number of passing interceptions. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain number of interceptions, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different interception totals.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to reflect the actual number of interceptions thrown by both quarterbacks combined. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct number of interceptions will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ recent performance, injury reports affecting their ability to throw accurately, or even weather conditions that might favor a more conservative passing game could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in defensive strategies employed by either team, or even pre-game analysis suggesting a heightened focus on preventing interceptions, could also lead to significant price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals can help inform trading decisions.