TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:43 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to bet on the performance of individual players in an upcoming football game between Green Bay and Detroit. The payouts are directly tied to the players' fantasy points scored during the game, calculated using a standardized scoring system. Each contract's value increases with the player's performance, offering a direct financial incentive tied to statistical achievements.
Each market operates as a scalar contract where the payout for 'Yes' contracts is determined by multiplying the player's weekly fantasy points by $0.01, rounding to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capping the payout between $0.00 and $1.00. The 'No' contract payout is calculated as $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. Fantasy points are sourced from Sleeper's weekly standard Points Per Reception (PPR) totals for the specified game date. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point figure for the player in that week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a 'Yes' payout of $0.00 and a 'No' payout of $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger payouts based on the same rate. All markets are independent, with each player's performance evaluated separately, and none are affiliated with the NFL.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, you may see convergence between this market and sportsbook odds, or divergence if the crowd disagrees with the sportsbook’s assessment. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional polls or expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point ladders. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the confidence level associated with each possible outcome, offering a dynamic view of expectations for the Packers vs Lions game.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals for the players involved in the Packers vs Lions game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official fantasy scoring rules as determined by a major fantasy sports provider. The specific fantasy point ladder that is achieved will determine which contracts pay out, and the payout amount will reflect the contract’s price at the time of resolution. Traders will be able to view the final results on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key players on either the Packers or the Lions would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence player performance and, therefore, the market. Major news events affecting team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking reports on player matchups or strategic adjustments could lead to traders re-evaluating their positions and adjusting prices in this market.