TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming football game between Green Bay and Detroit. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team needs to achieve to settle the bet, with specific thresholds defining whether the market resolves positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of the Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026, with overtime points excluded. Each market has a distinct point spread threshold that determines a 'Yes' outcome: if Detroit wins by more than a specified margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points), or if Green Bay wins by more than a specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' If the point differential does not exceed the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' All markets are independent, meaning each must be evaluated separately against its own criteria. The governing league’s official scoring and game result are the definitive sources for resolution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment differs from expert analysis. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or as the event draws closer. Comparing the two can offer a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the 4th quarter spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This creates a dynamic pricing system where the market efficiently incorporates new information and adjusts expectations accordingly. The current price indicates what traders believe is the fair probability of each spread outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final 4th quarter spread between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Injury reports for key players on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would any changes in weather conditions. Unexpected news regarding team strategies or coaching decisions could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant line movement in traditional sportsbooks might prompt traders to reassess their positions. Public perception and media coverage leading up to the game can also play a role, influencing the overall trading activity in this market.