TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Green Bay or Detroit specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team achieves a score differential exceeding the specified threshold for that market. Thresholds range from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points for both teams, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance within the quarter. No points scored in other quarters influence the resolution, and only the exact point difference during the third quarter determines the outcome.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbook odds tend to align, reflecting the collective wisdom of those wagering on the event. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information, market participants, and incentives. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven purely by individuals expressing their beliefs about the most likely outcome. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that prediction market traders have access to, or place more weight on, information not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price of contracts representing that spread will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and generate a forecast of the 3rd quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sports data providers. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts available for purchase. The final spread will be the deciding factor for payouts on this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Packers or the Lions would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s offensive or defensive style, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or pre-game reports, could lead to traders adjusting their positions and altering the price of contracts in this market.