TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:35 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will win by a specific margin in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the point differential during the latter half of play, regardless of the overall game result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the designated Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: if Detroit wins by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5), or if Green Bay wins by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and the outcome of one does not affect the others. The governing body's official scoring and game records will determine resolution.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what is captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If sportsbook odds significantly differ from the price action here, it could indicate disagreement with the public's assessment or the incorporation of unique information by traders. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Packers-Lions second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely result, and it will fluctuate based on new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second half spread of the Green Bay Packers versus the Detroit Lions game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sports league, determining which spread contracts will pay out to contract holders. The final point difference between the two teams at the end of the second half will be the determining factor for this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Packers or the Lions would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half, or even pre-game reports on team strategies, could all contribute to shifts in the perceived probabilities and therefore the price of contracts on Kalshi.