TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by the game's early scoring events.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or defensive unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown, regardless of any penalties that may nullify the play. If no touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other participant markets resolve to No. Touchdowns resulting from fake punts or offensive field goals do not qualify for any of the markets, ensuring that only standard offensive touchdowns count toward resolution.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a percentage chance. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price discovery, and the current prices reflect the collective assessment of all participants. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure liquidity and fair pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player who legally crosses the goal line first for a touchdown will be declared the winner. Any touchdowns scored due to penalties will not count towards resolution. The official game statistics will be used to determine the first touchdown scorer, and the platform will verify the result against trusted sports news sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players or the expected starting quarterback, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the perceived likelihood of different players scoring. Late-breaking news about team strategies or play-calling tendencies could also move the market. Finally, significant betting activity – a large influx of trades on a specific player – could also drive price changes.