TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:16 PM EST
Kalshi
The market determines which team will lead after the first quarter of a professional football game between Green Bay and Detroit on October 25, 2026. It focuses only on the points scored during that opening period, with a specific resolution for a tied quarter.
This market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the first quarter of the designated professional football game. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the final game outcome does not affect the result. If both teams score the same number of points in the quarter, the market resolves as a tie. Performance after the first quarter is irrelevant to this market's resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of opinions and potential insights. It’s common to see initial discrepancies, but as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi often converge with those offered by sportsbooks, especially if there aren't significant late-breaking developments influencing sentiment. However, this market can sometimes offer more favorable odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Packers or the Lions will win the first quarter. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that team winning. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price, suggesting a decreasing probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated and responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official result of which team led after the first quarter of the Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Any potential disputes will be evaluated based on publicly available and verifiable game data, providing a clear and definitive result for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either the Packers or the Lions would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the odds. Unexpected news or statements from coaches or players might also affect trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations, especially as we get closer to the game and more information becomes available.