TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 6:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Green Bay or Detroit during the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the first half of the designated Green Bay vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds the specified point margin outlined in the market title. For markets where Detroit is the favorite, 'Yes' occurs when Detroit wins by more than the stated points; conversely, for Green Bay markets, 'Yes' occurs when Green Bay wins by more than the stated points. Only points scored during the first half count toward resolution, and all markets operate independently—resolution of one does not affect others. The governing body's official records will determine outcomes, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as they incentivize participants to be well-informed. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, though they aren’t directly comparable to the dynamic pricing seen here.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Packers-Lions first half spread. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread difference at the end of the first half of the Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions game will determine the winning contracts. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to determine the settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the Packers-Lions first half spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to new information or adjust their positions.