TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
The Greece vs Germany match will also be judged purely on goal-differential thresholds. Victory margins determine whether specific markets regarding either team's dominance are satisfied.
If Greece wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Greece vs Germany professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Greece wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Greece vs Germany professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Greece vs Germany professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Greece vs Germany professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market believes the true probability lies, compared to how sportsbooks initially assess the Greece vs Germany match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at various price points, indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders regarding the potential spread in the Greece vs Germany match. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Greece vs Germany match, as determined by official sports statistics, will be used to determine which contracts payout. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the completion of the match and verification of the official results.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly impact market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-game commentary from analysts could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in expectations. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding how the market is reacting to new information leading up to the Greece vs Germany match.