TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$181,481,432

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,827,991,073

405,996

Markets across

40,551

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,368

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Grand Prix of Australia Winner
kalshi

Who will win the Grand Prix of Australia?

Volume:
$9,409

Marc Marquez

 - Kalshi

Marc Marquez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 5:22 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marc Marquez

View
60%
19%
Yes 60¢No 40¢
—
N/A
$3,374
N/A
N/A
$1,980
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Marco Bezzecchi

View
15%
2%
Yes 15¢No 85¢
—
N/A
$1,248
N/A
N/A
$671
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Johann Zarco

View
5%
2%
Yes 5¢No 95¢
—
N/A
$1,248
N/A
N/A
$1,248
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Alex Marquez

View
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 96¢
—
N/A
$1,025
N/A
N/A
$1,025
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Ai Ogura

View
2%
4%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Fabio Di Giannantonio

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Jack Miller

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Alex Rins

View
1%
4%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Brad Binder

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Diogo Moreira

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Augusto Fernandez

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Maverick Vinales

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Fabio Quartararo

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Franco Morbidelli

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Enea Bastianini

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Pedro Acosta

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Francesco Bagnaia

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Iker Lecuona

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Jorge Martin

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,385
N/A
N/A
$970
Settled
No
kalshi

Raul Fernandez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$540
N/A
N/A
$365
Settled
No
kalshi

Luca Marini

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Fermin Aldeguer

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Toprak Razgatlioglu

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This event tracks the outcome of a motorcycle race scheduled for October 24, 2026, in Australia, focusing on which rider achieves the top position. Each market is centered around a specific competitor's potential to secure the victory. The resolution hinges on the official race results and adherence to strict criteria regarding race completion and timing.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified rider finishes first in the main race scheduled for October 24, 2026, at the 2026 Grand Prix of Australia. If the designated rider retires, is disqualified, or fails to be classified as a finisher, the market resolves to 'No'. Postponements are allowed if the race commences within 48 hours of the original start time, with resolution based on the final official result. Should the race be canceled or fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistency in evaluation for each competitor's chance to win the event.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Australian Grand Prix winner market tracks the current odds for each driver to win, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,699, and the total volume traded to date, which is $9,409. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the probabilities of different outcomes in this exciting Formula 1 race. The dashboard allows you to see which drivers are the current favorites and how market sentiment is shifting.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely buy and sell contracts, leading to prices driven by actual perceived probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of the trading process. If you find a significant difference between the odds here and those offered by a sportsbook, it could indicate an opportunity for value betting, depending on your own analysis of the race.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing each driver winning the race. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that driver winning, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, practice sessions, and their own assessments, which causes the prices to fluctuate. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each driver taking the checkered flag.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results published by Formula 1, identifying the driver who crosses the finish line first. Any post-race penalties or disqualifications that alter the official finishing order will be reflected in the resolution of this market. The final result will be determined by the official race stewards and reported by reputable motorsport news outlets.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected weather conditions during the race weekend, such as rain, could dramatically alter the competitive landscape and favor different drivers. Mechanical failures or crashes during practice or qualifying sessions could also affect a driver’s chances and shift the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding driver health, team strategy changes, or upgrades to the cars could influence trading activity. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they are likely to cause fluctuations in the prices within this market.