TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Man I Need
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2027
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?
$
Description
This event group forecasts the winner of the Record of the Year award at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards in 2027. Prediction markets are created for individual songs to win, as well as a market for 'another track' to win.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official Grammy Awards results to determine the winner, with a tie-breaking rule based on alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: The official Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/) and the television broadcast of the awards.Core resolution logic:
- A song market resolves to 'Yes' if the song wins Record of the Year.
- A song market resolves to 'No' if the song is not nominated for Record of the Year.
- In case of a tie, the song whose title comes first alphabetically wins.
- If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nomination Announcement Delay: If the official nominations are delayed, resolution will occur as soon as the nominations are announced, even if after the originally scheduled date of November 16, 2026.
- Disqualification: If a nominated song is disqualified after the nominations are announced but before the awards ceremony, the market for that song will resolve to 'No'.
Polymarket
The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 16, 2026, and the ceremony for February 7, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards. If a track is not officially nominated for Record of the Year when the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated track whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.
Kalshi
If The Fate of Ophelia has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Man I Need has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aperture has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Just Might has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Choosin' Texas has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If So Easy (To Fall In Love) has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a different kind of intelligence than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on subjective factors, industry knowledge, and artistic merit. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While there can be correlation, discrepancies often arise due to market participants incorporating information not readily available to analysts, or weighting factors differently. The current volume of $40,512 suggests significant interest and active forecasting within this market.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to different price discovery processes. For example, Polymarket might attract more casual bettors, while Kalshi could draw more sophisticated traders. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform can influence price sensitivity. Currently, Polymarket currently favors 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year? at 37.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Man I Need (Olivia Dean) win Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? at 92.0%, illustrating these potential differences.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Record of the Year award, as announced by the Recording Academy at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards, will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official results released by the Recording Academy, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. The current trading volume of $40,512 demonstrates strong engagement with this market as the event approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 1, 2027. Major events like album releases from leading artists, critical acclaim, chart performance, and significant media coverage could all shift probabilities. Unexpected nominations or snubs during the Grammy nomination process would also be a major catalyst. Furthermore, any controversies surrounding potential nominees could influence trading activity. A surge in volume, currently at $11 daily, often indicates a response to new information or changing sentiment regarding the potential winners of the Record of the Year award.