TOTAL VOLUME:

$148.4b

24H VOL:

$209,734,046

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,817,056,367

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,865,708,956

470,731

Markets across

35,423

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,810

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?

Total volume:
$137,069
Volume 24h:
$69
76%
Liquidity:
$8,711
48%
Open interest:
$57,499
0%

Above $5.79

 - Kalshi

Above $5.79 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.79 by Dec 31?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% Illiquid market 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $5.79

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 6¢
6¢
N/A
$8,316
0%
1%
$2,376
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $6.09

Trade
97%
Yes 95¢No 95¢
90¢
N/A
$7,399
0%
0%
$1,994
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $6.39

Trade
97%
Yes 91¢No 76¢
67¢
N/A
$11,835
0%
0.3%
$2,125
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $6.69

Trade
63%
Yes 95¢No 73¢
68¢
N/A
$7,673
0%
0%
$1,584
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$7.50+

Trade
22%
1%
Yes 25.5¢No 81¢
6.5¢
$758
$2,107
2%
22%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$5.50-$6.00

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 18.8¢No 84.3¢
3.1¢
$744
$8,219
0%
0.37%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$4.50-$5.00

Trade
16%
2%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
3¢
$778
$1,973
0.45%
12%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$6.00-$6.50

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11.9¢No 90.2¢
2.1¢
$707
$1,395
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$5.00-$5.50

Trade
10%
Yes 11.2¢No 90.3¢
1.5¢
$944
$3,515
0.29%
1%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$4.00-$4.50

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
$1,017
$7,042
0%
0.44%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$6.50-$7.00

Trade
8%
Yes 11.9¢No 98.6¢
10.5¢
$521
$1,226
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$3.00-$3.50

Trade
7%
Yes 10.7¢No 95.8¢
6.5¢
$515
$1,308
0%
11%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

<$2.50

Trade
6%
Yes 10.2¢No 97.3¢
7.5¢
$838
$930
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$7.00-$7.50

Trade
6%
Yes 8.7¢No 96.9¢
5.6¢
$451
$1,036
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$2.50-$3.00

Trade
6%
Yes 11.7¢No 99.5¢
11.2¢
$745
$1,146
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.3¢No 99.4¢
2.7¢
$693
$4,999
0.2%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $5.49

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,390
N/A
N/A
$27,561
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.19

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,006
N/A
N/A
$2,869
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $1.59

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,769
N/A
N/A
$2,662
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $3.09

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,750
N/A
N/A
$1,558
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $2.49

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,634
N/A
N/A
$1,396
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $3.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,307
N/A
N/A
$1,756
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $4.59

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,018
N/A
N/A
$1,511
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $4.89

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,012
N/A
N/A
$1,580
2mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above $1.89

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,879
N/A
N/A
$1,742
2mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

These markets track the rental price of NVIDIA H200 GPUs as measured by the Ornn H200 Index on December 31, 2026. Kalshi offers binary yes/no markets at 20 different price thresholds ($0.99 to $6.69 per compute hour), while Polymarket offers a bracket-based market covering the same price range ($2.50 to $7.50+). Both use the same underlying index but structure resolution differently.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses independent binary threshold markets while Polymarket uses a single mutually exclusive bracket market. Both reference the same Ornn H200 Index but resolve to incompatible structures, creating structural incompatibility rather than a data integrity failure.Hero tip: Understand that Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring the same underlying price but offering different betting structures. A single price outcome on Dec 31, 2026 will trigger multiple Kalshi Yes resolutions (all thresholds below the price) but only one Polymarket bracket. Use Polymarket for directional price range bets and Kalshi for threshold-specific exposure. Monitor ornnai.com/dashboard for the official H200 Index value as the single source of truth.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 20 independent binary markets, each with a single price threshold. Resolution: Yes if H200 compute per hour is above the stated threshold by Dec 31, 2026. All thresholds below the final price resolve Yes simultaneously. No tie-breaking rule specified.
  • Polymarket: Single bracket-based market with 13 mutually exclusive price ranges ($2.50–$7.50+). Resolution source: Ornn H200 Index (ornnai.com dashboard). Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to the higher bracket. Finalization deadline: 7 calendar days after Dec 31, 2026 (ET).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the hourly compute price of NVIDIA H200 as reported by Ornn's pricing dashboard in USD. The market uses the official closing value on December 31, 2026, rounded to two decimal places. If no pricing data is available by the expiration date, all price thresholds resolve to No. Historical revisions to the underlying data made after expiration are not considered. Each price threshold independently resolves Yes if the H200 compute price exceeds that specific level by the deadline.

Frequently asked questions

The H200 GPU rental price market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on where compute-per-hour rental rates will settle by year-end 2026. This dashboard consolidates volume of $137,069 across both venues, letting you monitor consensus forecasts on whether premium GPU rental costs will rise, fall, or remain stable. Traders on each platform are pricing different outcome ranges, reflecting uncertainty around data center capacity, AI demand, and competitive pricing pressures in the high-performance compute rental sector.

Prediction markets like those tracked here often diverge from traditional analyst reports because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than point estimates from research firms. Market odds reflect live supply and demand for each outcome, updating continuously as new information emerges. Analysts may publish quarterly forecasts on GPU pricing trends, but this market captures moment-to-moment belief shifts driven by earnings reports, chip announcements, and capacity announcements. Cross-referencing both sources can reveal where consensus is strongest and where outlier views persist.

Polymarket currently favors Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026? at 22.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.79 by Dec 31? at 99.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Outcome definitions also vary slightly—one venue may focus on a narrower price band while the other uses a broader threshold. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to platform-specific fees, user bases, and settlement timing assumptions.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific outcome depends on which price range or threshold is matched by actual H200 rental rates at that time. Traders are betting on whether rates will exceed, fall below, or land within defined bands. Resolution hinges on transparent, independently verifiable data—typically published pricing from major cloud providers or industry benchmarks—ensuring all participants can audit the final result.

Major catalysts include new GPU supply announcements from NVIDIA or competitors, data center expansion plans, and shifts in AI workload demand. Earnings calls from cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud often reveal pricing strategy changes and capacity constraints. Macroeconomic factors—interest rates, tech spending cycles, and enterprise AI budgets—also influence rental demand and pricing power. Regulatory moves on AI compute access and geopolitical supply chain disruptions could reshape competitive dynamics. Watch for benchmark reports and industry surveys that quantify actual rental rates in real time.